UN World Population Prospects 2024
World Population Projections
The UN publishes several projection variants rather than a single forecast. They differ almost entirely in one assumption — future fertility — and by 2100 that assumption is worth billions of people.
Low, Medium and High Variants
The shaded band is the range between the high and low fertility variants.
| Series | Year | Value |
|---|---|---|
| High variant | 2025 | 8.25B |
| High variant | 2050 | 10.4B |
| High variant | 2075 | 12.4B |
| High variant | 2100 | 14.4B |
| Low variant | 2025 | 8.21B |
| Low variant | 2050 | 8.94B |
| Low variant | 2075 | 8.41B |
| Low variant | 2100 | 6.99B |
| Medium variant | 1950 | 2.49B |
| Medium variant | 1975 | 4.07B |
| Medium variant | 2000 | 6.17B |
| Medium variant | 2025 | 8.23B |
| Medium variant | 2050 | 9.66B |
| Medium variant | 2075 | 10.3B |
| Medium variant | 2100 | 10.2B |
High variant
14.4B
by 2100
Fertility runs half a child per woman above the medium variant.
Medium variant
10.2B
by 2100
The UN’s central projection, and the one used everywhere else on this site.
Low variant
6.99B
by 2100
Fertility runs half a child per woman below the medium variant.
When Population Peaks
Under the medium variant, world population stops growing before 2100.
Regional Change by 2050
Population now against the medium-variant projection for 2050.
- Asia4.86B5.28B
- Africa1.58B2.47B
- Latin America672.1M730.1M
- Europe743.5M703M
- Northern America389.6M426.6M
- Oceania47.1M57.7M
| Category | 2026 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | 4.86B | 5.28B |
| Africa | 1.58B | 2.47B |
| Latin America | 672.1M | 730.1M |
| Europe | 743.5M | 703M |
| Northern America | 389.6M | 426.6M |
| Oceania | 47.1M | 57.7M |
- Asia+417.1M by 2050
- Africa+881.7M by 2050
- Latin America+57.9M by 2050
- Europe−40.5M by 2050
- Northern America+37M by 2050
- Oceania+10.6M by 2050
Fastest Growing Countries Today
Current annual growth rate — the countries driving the next few decades of increase.
- United Arab Emirates+4.68%
- Saudi Arabia+4.63%
- Oman+3.96%
- Qatar+3.93%
- Mayotte+3.77%
- Syria+3.77%
- Chad+3.41%
- Central African Republic+3.37%
- Somalia+3.34%
- Niger+3.22%
| Name | Annual growth |
|---|---|
| United Arab Emirates | +4.68% |
| Saudi Arabia | +4.63% |
| Oman | +3.96% |
| Qatar | +3.93% |
| Mayotte | +3.77% |
| Syria | +3.77% |
| Chad | +3.41% |
| Central African Republic | +3.37% |
| Somalia | +3.34% |
| Niger | +3.22% |
Countries Losing Population
Where deaths and emigration already outpace births and immigration.
- Marshall Islands−3.43%
- Cook Islands−2.46%
- Moldova−1.75%
- Northern Mariana Islands−1.68%
- Tuvalu−1.61%
- American Samoa−1.59%
- Albania−1.17%
- Saint Pierre and Miquelon−1.15%
- Latvia−0.99%
- Wallis and Futuna−0.97%
| Name | Annual change |
|---|---|
| Marshall Islands | −3.43% |
| Cook Islands | −2.46% |
| Moldova | −1.75% |
| Northern Mariana Islands | −1.68% |
| Tuvalu | −1.61% |
| American Samoa | −1.59% |
| Albania | −1.17% |
| Saint Pierre and Miquelon | −1.15% |
| Latvia | −0.99% |
| Wallis and Futuna | −0.97% |
Key Takeaways
Growth is slowing everywhere
World population is still rising, but the rate has been falling for fifty years. It peaked above 2% a year in the late 1960s; today it is 0.82%.
The peak is in sight
Under the medium variant, world population tops out at 10.3B around 2084 and then edges down. That is a new development in human history — every previous projection horizon had population still climbing.
Growth is concentrating
Africa accounts for most of the increase to 2050, while Europe and East Asia shrink. The regional balance of the world's population in 2100 looks very different from today's.
Variants are assumptions, not error bars
The low and high variants differ from the medium by half a child per woman. They show what follows from a stated fertility path — not a probability range around a forecast.